The fiscal outlook: Tough choices ahead
The long-term budget outlook for the federal government is bleak. What is surprising is that this is considered news. The forces driving the U.S.’s long-term budget problem have been known for decades....
View ArticleMore on the fiscal outlook
My recent post on the government’s fiscal outlook generated several thoughtful comments. Two readers mentioned Paul Krugman’s op-ed on Social Security in The New York Times. It is true, as Krugman...
View ArticleMusings of a cockeyed optimist
I can’t sing a lick, but a tune from the Rodgers and Hammerstein musical South Pacific came to mind as I was thinking about the pervasive pessimism in so much economic and market commentary. In the...
View ArticleSavings vs. stimulus
The current economic recovery is weak, but that’s hardly news. There are many explanations for this meager improvement, but perhaps one of the most telling is a large jump in personal savings in the...
View ArticleRetirement themes for 2011
Here are several “big picture” retirement themes I expect to hear more of in the coming year. I’ll come back later in the month with a post on personal retirement tactics. From “devastation” to the...
View ArticleA pothole, not a soft patch
Every Wednesday night, my next-door neighbor and I tend to take out our garbage at about the same time. Don’t know how that happens, but we usually get to talking about the usual topics—our kids,...
View ArticleListening to the market—not the pundits
Everyone who is not on vacation appears to be focused on the uncertainty created by the lack of a resolution to the most recent government funding crisis. I wish I could add some value with respect to...
View ArticleRetirement and the market sell-off
When the stock market sells off, as it did in late July and early August, there is an inevitable surge in commentary on the riskiness of U.S. retirement accounts. The main worry is that retirement...
View ArticleThe case for China
I was at a garden party recently, on a beautiful Sunday afternoon in September, where talk centered around the economy, politics, favorite movies, and the latest in electronic gadgets. Yet one...
View Article$10 salads, $4 gas, and low inflation
Note: For an expanded look at Vanguard’s outlook for inflation—and an explanation of the data behind our analysis—read our interview with Joe Davis on vanguard.com. As Vanguard’s chief economist, I’m...
View ArticleGlobal contagion: Europe’s next export?
In the summer at the beach as a boy, I used to dig in the sand and dream of finding pirate treasure. Old silver and gold coins from Spain and other parts of Europe that may have once washed upon … Read...
View ArticleToo gloomy a view
Retirement systems are dynamic and can be expected to change over time. But one hindrance to thinking about change is the common practice of promoting excessively gloomy views of retirement outcomes in...
View ArticlePut your tie-dye away: It’s not the ’70s
Any long-term investor knows that inflation is the enemy. A spike in inflation can drastically reduce your real investment returns, particularly for fixed income securities. At present, yields on many...
View ArticleThink you’re being tax-savvy? Better think twice
An exchange I had during the holidays triggered my desire to write—and, hopefully, get some feedback from all of you. The topic du jour is the fiscal cliff and what the government (House, Senate,...
View ArticleThe Fed gets a new captain
The Federal Reserve is going to be led by a remarkable economist, but Janet Yellen still faces challenges. Policy will evolve, says Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis.
View ArticleThe key to happiness
Every December, my department holds a white elephant gift exchange. We place wrapped gifts on a table and take a number. When our number is called, we can select a gift or “steal” a gift that someone...
View ArticleConsuming, investing, and the economic self
A few weeks ago, I reviewed preliminary reports on first-quarter growth in the U.S. economy. The news was grim: annualized shrinkage of 0.7%. “The economy has now contracted in three separate quarters...
View Article“Take it easy”
While the title may raise a few eyebrows given the equity market’s rocky start to 2016, its inspiration is Glenn Frey, the legendary singer-songwriter for the Eagles, who passed away on January 18,...
View ArticleLess is more
On Friday, the Commerce Department’s revision to fourth quarter GDP indicated that the U.S. economy expanded by 2.4% in 2015, consistent with our expectations. In the year ahead, growth will most...
View ArticleWhat would “Brexit” mean for investors?
On June 23, voters in the United Kingdom will decide whether to remain part of the European Union or withdraw from it. The possibility of a British E.U. exit—often shortened to “Brexit”—has caused lots...
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